Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Michigan Smishigan

Was anyone really sitting on the edge of their seats yesterday, waiting with baited breath to find out who was going to win the Michigan primaries?

No.

Not on either side of the political aisle.

On the Democrat side, old Hillary was the only top tier candidate to even have her name on the ballot. (And, even then, 45% decided to send delegates to their national convention who were NOT COMMITTED to her.)

In the GOP, it was a foregone conclusion that native son Mitt Romney, whose dad was a three term governor of Michigan, would get the most votes. It turned out to be a "whopping" 39%.

Yawn.

What is exciting, however, is that both fields are still wide open, and we face the prospect of two brokered conventions.

Now, ye socks, turn your attention to South Carolina, where on Saturday only the Republicans will be voting. (The Dems take their turn a week later.) My prediction is Mike Huckabee wins. Handily. And, Fred Thompson will be forced out of the race.

What we're going to have is a delegate "round robin" going on, in which candidates have regional appeal. Huckabee in the Bible Belt. Romney in the country club states. McCain in places with lots of Independent voters. And, Giuliani . . . MAYBE . . . in the big urban centers.

That's a 3 or 4 candidate stew, whereby nobody is going to secure a majority of delegates to claim the nomination outright. And, they'll have to resort to some "horse trading."

But, that's just me. Draw your own conclusions.

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